The economic news for the last week of September 2026 revolves around three key data points: inflation in the eurozone rising to 3.3% in August, a quarterly GDP growth of 0.4% in the second quarter, and tensions over fuels in France that go beyond the simple issue of purchasing power.
These three signals, published or updated between September 10 and 24 by the European Central Bank and several research institutes, outline a week where monetary, energy, and budgetary decisions intersect.
Fuels in France: a logistical risk weighing on the real economy
The tensions over fuels are no longer just a line on the receipt. As of September 20, 2026, 15% of French gas stations were out of at least one type of fuel, compared to 11% two days earlier, according to data reported by TF1 Info. Diesel was averaging around 2.38 euros per liter.
This situation creates a cascading effect. When one in six or seven stations can no longer distribute diesel, road transporters change their routes, delivery times lengthen, and additional costs are passed on to industrial prices. The phenomenon goes beyond the question of filling up on Saturday morning: it affects supply chains on a regional scale.
For households, the impact is twofold. The fuel budget increases directly, but the prices of food and manufactured goods also absorb the rise in transport costs. Analyses published on the MoneyWeek France website allow tracking these repercussions sector by sector over the weeks.
Inflation in the eurozone at 3.3%: what the August 2026 rebound means
Harmonized inflation in the eurozone reached 3.3% in August 2026, up from 2.9% in July. This rebound, documented in the ECB’s Economic Bulletin No. 6 published on September 24, marks a break from the disinflationary trajectory observed since late 2024.
The ECB now forecasts an average inflation of 3.0% for the entire year of 2026. A return to the 2% target is not expected before the end of 2027. This timeline has direct consequences for interest rate policy.
Why the ECB maintains pressure on key interest rates
On September 10, 2026, the ECB made its monetary policy decision in this context of inflationary rebound. As long as inflation remains significantly above 2%, key interest rates will not decrease. For borrowers, both individuals and businesses, this means that the cost of credit remains high.
The mechanism is simple: the central bank refuses to loosen its policy as long as prices are accelerating. The expectations for rate cuts that circulated in spring 2026 have been pushed back. Bond markets are now incorporating a scenario of prolonged status quo.
Eurozone growth: 0.4% in the second quarter, a figure to be nuanced
The real GDP of the eurozone grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, following stagnation in the first quarter. The macroeconomic projections from the ECB, published on September 10, slightly raised growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 compared to June estimates.
This aggregated figure masks national disparities. France, in particular, shows a trajectory significantly more fragile than the eurozone average, according to BNP Paribas’ ActuEco analysis from September 14, 2026.
France-eurozone gap: explanatory factors
Several structural elements explain this divergence:
- Fuel tensions weigh more heavily on an economy where road transport remains predominant in last-mile logistics.
- The French budget deficit limits the room for maneuver for measures to support consumption, unlike economies like Germany that have broader fiscal reserves.
- Household confidence remains degraded, partly due to reduced visibility on medium-term energy price trends.
This French fragility is not cyclical. It reflects an accumulated gap over several quarters between domestic consumption dynamics and companies’ investment capacity.
Signals to watch on financial markets this week
The CAC 40 ended the week of September 25 with a slight weekly gain, breaking a series of consecutive declines. This respite remains fragile: fluctuations have been primarily driven by oil prices and bond yields.
In the United States, durable goods orders surprised positively in August, and the University of Michigan’s confidence index stood at 48.1 in September, a level above expectations. These two indicators suggest that the American economy is absorbing the shock of high rates better than several analysts had anticipated.
Two elements deserve particular attention for the upcoming week:
- The Dallas Fed manufacturing index, published on Monday, will provide a sectoral reading of industrial activity in the southern United States.
- The economic sentiment in the eurozone, expected on Tuesday, will help verify whether the GDP rebound in the second quarter continues or fades in the face of energy tensions.
- The evolution of oil prices remains the pivotal factor: any easing in oil markets would relieve pressure on long-term rates and European indices.
The week ahead will test the strength of the European stock market rebound. Oil and long-term rates remain the two variables that dictate market direction, more than corporate results or leading indicators. A sustained retreat of oil prices below mid-September levels would change the game for portfolios exposed to European cyclical stocks.
